A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
